NBA Playoffs best bets: 4 expert picks for Saturday 4/27

Cavaliers vs. Magic

Saturday, April 27, 1 p.m. ET, TNT
Cavs Team Total Under 100.5 (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Cleveland Cavaliers should be better than they were in Game 3, but what have they done to earn such confidence?

This does shape up as a bounce-back spot for them, but it doesn't mean they'll crack this team total over. This era of Cleveland basketball has had one playoff game of 100 or more points. In five games against the Knicks last season, they got 97, 107, 79, 93 and 95 points. This year against the Junior Knicks — a.k.a. the Orlando Magic — they've gotten to 97, 96 and 83.

I think they could even win this game, but I'd expect this series to be back in the mud — where it belongs — for Game 4.

The Magic scoring 121 last game is the only outlier and team total over this series. Our homies at the books know it, it's why they have them listed at 100.5.

I like the game under at 201.5 also, but I like this even more.

Pick: Cavs Team Total Under 100.5

Thunder vs. Pelicans

Saturday, April 27, 3:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Pelicans 1H -1.5 (-108, DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I'm playing the first-half playoff trend for teams down 0-2 coming home. Since the 2015-16 season, in the first two rounds, playoff teams that lost the first two road games are 25-9 ATS in the first half, hitting at 73.5% for a 39.8% ROI, per BetLabs.

On top of the league-wide trend, the Pelicans were the second-best first-half team against the spread in the regular season (50-30-2) and are in a great spot at home.

They've missed Zion Williamson's scoring so far this series, but their defense should be able to keep this close at half. After that, I'm not so sure. The Thunder were a great second-half team at 41-30-3.

Pick: Pelicans 1H -1.5 (-108)

OKC Winning at End of Every Quarter (+310, FanDuel)

By Maltman

In game 1, Oklahoma City came out jittery, as the majority of the team was in their first NBA playoff action. It resulted in a back-and-forth game that they squeaked out in the end.

Game 2 was the way the Thunder looked for more of the season, and it went poorly for the Pelicans. With the Thunder offense humming, they scored at will from every level, and New Orleans had no answer for any of OKC's top three.

But the Pelicans' biggest problem? Their offense. Without Zion Williamson, the Thunder have put Luguentz Dort on Brandon Ingram and Jalen Williams on CJ McCollum, and it’s led to atrocious playoff performances. They aren’t able to get open or hit shots and are turning it over at a high rate.

I don’t think these teams are close. If OKC jumps out to a lead early, there isn’t much path for the Pelicans to come back, since they don’t have a lot of potent offense at the moment. While the Thunder are underdogs in the first quarter, I think there is heavy correlation if they win the first to win the game.

I'm betting .25u on OKC to lead wire to wire at +310, and would bet that down to +250.

Pick: OKC Winning at End of Every Quarter (+310)

Celtics vs. Heat

Saturday, April 27, 6 p.m. ET, TNT
Heat ML (+340, BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

This is a clear bounce-back spot for the Celtics, so why am I doing this?

The strategy is this: I think the Heat are going to split at home — I bet Celtics in 6 at +650 before the series started — and because the odds will be so long in Games 3 and 4 for the Heat to win, this is what I'm doing. If the Celtics win Game 3, I'm on the Heat in Game 4. If Miami wins Game 3, I'm leaning Celtics for Game 4 — but ultimately, it depends.

And if the Celtics win Games 3 and 4, then Game 5 should be a Celtics hammer, finishing the series in Boston. If the Heat win 3 and 4 — which likely won't happen — Game 5 should remain as such.

It's just my read on how the series is playing out. This is a bet on Erik Spoelstra to get one at home, and despite the Heat being the league's worst against-the-spread and straight-up home underdog this season, it's late April, and we have to evaluate them differently.

Pick: Heat ML (+340)