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Pictured: Charles Leclerc. (Photo by Peter Fox – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)

F1 odds, predictions and picks: 3 bets for Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Sun. 5/19

Originally posted on Action Network | By Jono Rose | Last updated 5/18/24

Check out the latest F1 odds and Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, May 19.

After a week off, the Formula 1 grid heads back across the pond to the first of two races on Italian soil this season. The 2023 edition of the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix was unfortunately canceled because of sudden flooding in the area.

Very briefly, the Emilia-Romagna GP was added to the revised calendar in 2020 because of the pandemic, initially as a “one-off” race. There have been three editions thus far of the event, and the race will remain on the schedule through at least 2025.

Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix outright winner, as of Saturday and via FanDuel:

Max Verstappen: -250
Lando Norris: +360
Charles Leclerc: +1200
Oscar Piastri: +1600
Carlos Sainz Jr.: +3200
George Russell: +7000
Sergio Perez: +11000
Lewis Hamilton: +11000
Yuki Tsunoda: +18000
Daniel Ricciardo: +20000
Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
Fernando Alonso: +42000
Zhou Guanyu: +50000
Esteban Ocon: +50000
Kevin Magnussen: +50000
Lance Stroll: +50000
Logan Sargeant +50000
Valtteri Botas: +50000
Alexander Albon: +50000
Pierre Gasly: +50000

The Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, which used to host the San Marino Grand Prix until 2006, is located in Imola, Italy, roughly an hour away from Scuderia Ferrari’s team headquarters in Maranello. The permanent track features 19 corners, several straightaways, high-speed curves and a mix of medium and slow chicanes. This old-school circuit will favor a balanced car, only featuring one DRS zone, and is the second-most difficult circuit to successfully overtake on, behind Monaco.

Qualifying on Saturday afternoon went as expected for the top five drivers on the grid at the moment, with Max Verstappen taking pole position by less than a tenth of a second in Q3. The gap at the top of the grid appears to be shrinking behind Max, with both McLaren’s and Ferrari’s right on his heels. Unfortunately for Red Bull, its second seat driver, Checo Perez, failed to make it out of Q2 and will start the race down in P11.

While Oscar Piastri qualified second fastest in Q3, he received a three-place grid penalty for impeding and will start down in P5. Lando Norris, fresh off of his first victory, will slide up one spot and start P2 next to Verstappen. With a second-row lockout, the two Ferrari’s will start P3 and P4, with Charles Leclerc just ahead of Carlos Sainz Jr.

Bet on the F1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix this weekend with our FanDuel promo code!

F1 Odds: Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

Charles Leclerc Top Ferrari

If you have followed F1 for the past couple of seasons, team Scuderia Ferrari has been trending upwards ever since the arrival of Team Principal Fred Vasseur before the 2023 season. The knock had been that the Ferrari’s were lightning quick in qualifying over a short stint, but had reliability problems or lack of pace over a 300-kilometer race.

Through six races in the 2024 season, the team has secured a podium finish in five of the six races, while Sainz and Leclerc finished P1 & P2 down in Australia. They are firmly in second place in the Constructors’ Championship standings, and look to reward the Tifosi for their support on home soil during Sunday’s race. The team brings in a massive upgrade package to the SF-24 for Imola to continue to close the gap to Verstappen at the top.

Looking back on the prior Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, Leclerc has finished ahead of his teammate Sainz in all three races and sprint race two years ago. Qualifying one spot ahead of Sainz this year, I think this trend will continue. I want shares of Leclerc in this race, and I am willing to pay a steep price for him to finish ahead of Sainz. History suggests Leclerc is faster and more comfortable around this track, and with overtakes being difficult to pull off, starting ahead in P3 justifies laying the juice head-to-head.

If placing a -350 bet isn’t right for you, don’t worry, you aren’t alone. Another way to bet Leclerc in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix is to take him to finish in the top two. While Leclerc was lucky to move up a spot on the grid into P3 to start the race, it looks as if he left some pace out there in Q3.

Throughout the race weekend, outside of FP3 and Q3, Leclerc has either been the fastest or second fastest car in the field. On Friday to start the weekend, he was the fastest in FP1 (1:16.990) and FP2 (1:15.906). Then during qualifying, he was second to Verstappen in Q1 and Q2. I believe the Ferrari setup with less drag than McLaren will show itself over the course of the race and ultimately be the difference for Leclerc on Sunday.

Picks:

Charles Leclerc – Head-to-Head over Carlos Sainz Jr. (1.75 units, -350 on BetMGM)
Charles Leclerc – Top 2 Finish (1 unit, +150 on DraftKings)

Safety Car Prop Bet

Back in Round 03, there were several incidents in the race that looked likely to bring out the safety car, and we were burned by it as bettors. There were two virtual safety cars down in Australia, but not an actual safety car. I am going back to the well, as this track lends itself to incidents at turn one as well as drivers going off the track into the gravel, prompting the need for a safety car.

During the 2020 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, there was one virtual safety car and one full safety car deployed during the race. In 2021, there were three full safety cars throughout the race, and the most recent race in 2022 had one full safety car deployed.